Geopolitical and Market Risks Loom Over ASML’s Semiconductor Dominance
ASML's technological monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines faces mounting challenges as geopolitical tensions and export controls disrupt its supply chain. The Dutch firm, crucial to advanced semiconductor production, has seen shipments to China canceled under tightened regulations—a market that previously accounted for nearly half its sales.
While ASML's stock remains buoyed by AI industry growth, its reliance on a fragile global trade ecosystem introduces volatility. Semiconductor nationalism is accelerating, with Japan, the U.S., and Europe all vying for supply chain sovereignty. The company's next-generation High-NA EUV systems, priced at $380 million per unit, may face shrinking addressable markets as chipmakers consolidate orders.
